Turf Show Times
The Los Angeles Rams will be going for their sixth consecutive win on Sunday Night Football when they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It will be Baker Mayfield’s first game at SoFi Stadium against the Rams since the 2022 season. The Rams are playing some of their best football right now while the Buccaneers are trending downward. Rams head coach Sean McVay has dominated the recent matchups against Todd Bowles. With the current offense playing the way that it is, that should continue. Here are this week’s keys to victory.
The Rams are playing a better version of Sam Darnold when they take on the Buccaneers on Sunday. Early in the season, Mayfield was firmly in the MVP conversation. However, with offensive line injuries, the lack of a consistent run game, and injuries to the wide receivers, Mayfield has struggled. Unlike Darnold, Mayfield has the ability to create out of structure, but he is still susceptible to missing throws. That isn’t going to result in interceptions like Darnold, but Mayfield has been sacked 20 times this season. He also ranks third in fumbles with seven.
If the Rams can lock down on the backend and get Mayfield to hold the ball, Jared Verse and Byron Young may be able to get to Mayfield and force a fumble or get a sack. Again, Mayfield has the ability to make plays when scrambling, but if the Rams pass rush can get him to play a bit chaotically, chaotic things will happen.
For the first time since the Rams introduced 13 personnel against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the offense struggled with it last week. A lot of that was because the Seahawks were able to match it out of nickel due to the personnel that they have on that side of the ball. However, that is not the case for the Buccaneers. Even with Tyler Higbee going on injured reserve, the Rams should be able to get into heavier personnel with multiple tight ends. Davis Allen, Terrance Ferguson, and Colby Parkinson have all played well.
This is also where the Rams should be able to exploit the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are bottom-10 in EPA per dropback out of their base defense. Against 12 personnel, they’ve allowed 0.40 EPA per dropback which ranks 31st. They are allowing 6.2 yards per play out of their base defense which is the most in the NFL and 9.2 net yards per pass which is 31st. The Buccaneers secondary when in their base defense is allowing a 19.4 explosive pass rate.
To put it simply, the Rams should be able to exploit the second level defenders. SirVocea Dennis ranks 90th out of 93 linebackers in coverage, while Lavonte David is also outside the top 50 via PFF coverage grades. The Rams should be able to take advantage of the Buccaneers’ linebackers in the passing game, especially in base personnel and Todd Bowles’ tendency has been to...
