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The Los Angeles Rams will have an opportunity to avenge one of their most disappointing losses of the season when they take on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10. While the Rams were 8.5-point favorites back in Week 5, they lost in overtime despite having multiple chances to win that game. Much like back in Week 5, the Rams should win this game comfortably, but it’s never that simple against the 49ers. The Rams are just 4.5-point favorites on the road, but are much better than that on paper.
This is going to be a big game for the Rams. They are 0-1 in the division with five to play over the next nine weeks. A division win on Sunday against a 49ers team would set the Rams up well as they begin an important part of their schedule. Here are five keys to victory against the 49ers.
Over the last two weeks, the Rams have introduced a new twist to the offense and that has been with 13 personnel. Without Fred Warner, the 49ers can now be attacked in the middle of their defense, specifically their linebackers. This is a team that was already thin at the linebacker position and Dee Winters is expected to be out as well. While Tatum Bethune has been very good against the run, he’s allowed nine receptions on 12 targets over the past three weeks. This is where the Rams can really exploit the 49ers defense, especially if they can get them into their base personnel. Over the past two weeks, the Rams have gotten teams into base personnel at a 47.5 percent rate.
Teams have only run 13 plays this season out of 13 personnel against the 49ers. However, when the 49ers are in their base defense, they go from allowing 0.01 EPA per pass in nickel and dime to 0.31 EPA per pass in base. Three weeks ago against the Atlanta Falcons, the 49ers allowed seven receptions for 62 yards to Kyle Pitts. If the Rams can manage to stay on track running the ball out of 13 personnel, it will set things up for their tight ends in the passing game.
When the Rams played the 49ers back in Week 5, they actually did a good job limiting Christian McCaffrey’s damage on the ground. The 49ers’ running back had 22 carries for just 57 yards. However, he added eight receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. To no surprise, McCaffrey averaged 9.8 yards after the catch per reception in that game which was nearly double any other player in the 49ers offense. His 78 yards after the catch in that game was a season-high.
While the Rams had success against McCaffrey in the run game during the first match-up, there is a big difference in this game. The 49ers will have George Kittle back and, since he returned in Week 7, he’s...
