Sportsnaut
The Browns’ season has hit a critical point. After a gut-punch loss in Minnesota, Cleveland now faces a rested Pittsburgh team coming off its bye. Rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel has shown poise and flashes of mobility, but the matchup against the Steelers’ opportunistic defense is his toughest test yet. For a team searching for rhythm, discipline, and confidence, this AFC North showdown will reveal whether the Browns can stabilize or slide deeper into the standings.
Here are five bold predictions for Sunday’s Browns-Steelers matchup.
Myles Garrett has dominated this rivalry for years, totaling 9.5 sacks and 18 QB hits against Pittsburgh since 2020. His pass-rush win rate of 28.7 percent ranks second in the NFL, trailing only Micah Parsons. Against a Steelers offensive line that has already allowed 11 sacks in four games, Garrett is positioned to feast on rookie left tackle Broderick Jones, who owns a 48.9 Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.
Rodgers has thrown just three passes of 20-plus yards in his past two games, relying on short, quick releases to avoid pressure. If Cleveland forces him off script, his accuracy drops to 54 percent with a 68.3 rating when pressured, per Next Gen Stats. Look for Garrett to record at least two sacks and create a turnover opportunity that sets up early points for Cleveland.
Gabriel’s rookie season has been a study in composure. Despite facing constant pressure, his turnover-worthy play rate (2.3 percent) ranks top 10 among qualified quarterbacks. Against Minnesota, Gabriel avoided interceptions while completing 65 percent of his throws under duress. That discipline will be tested by a Steelers defense that leads the NFL with 12 takeaways and 8 interceptions through four games.
Gabriel’s ability to neutralize T.J. Watt’s edge rush by getting the ball out quickly will decide Cleveland’s fate. Watt has generated pressure on 19 percent of his pass-rush snaps this season, while Pittsburgh’s blitz packages have forced opposing QBs into a 45 percent completion rate. If Gabriel continues to limit turnovers and lean on quick throws, he can keep Cleveland in control of field position and prevent the short-field collapses that doomed them in earlier losses.
Cleveland’s wide receiver group has been one of the least efficient in football. The Browns rank 30th in yards per reception (8.9), 30th in touchdowns (five), and have not recorded a single 40-yard completion. According to Next Gen Stats, Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman are tied for 102nd out of 113 qualified receivers in average separation per route (2.1 yards). Jeudy also leads the NFL in dropped passes (five) and has converted only 39 percent of third-down targets into first downs. These struggles have forced Gabriel to rely on his tight ends for consistency.
That has elevated David Njoku into the centerpiece of the passing attack. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards after catch, producing a...
