ClutchPoints
Most of the Week 18 slate in the NFL is likely to be lopsided, with plenty of teams playing backups and resting starters to get healthy before the playoffs get underway. However, there are still a few matchups with massive stakes on the line, none more than a matchup for the NFC West title on Saturday night.
After already playing each other once back in Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers will do battle once again in Santa Clara to close out the regular season in Week 18. Not only will the winner lift the division crown in the toughest division in football, but they will get the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye.
The 49ers won that first meeting over Seattle 17-13 in a defensive slugfest in Seattle on a late touchdown pass from Brock Purdy to Jake Tonges. That was the first game of the Sam Darnold-Klint Kubiak marriage in Seattle, and the offense has gotten a lot better since.
However, the other side of the ball is where both of these teams make their money. The 49ers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and the Seahawks boast one of the best defenses in the league led by Mike Macdonald.
How do each of those units make their hay, and who has the edge in Week 18?
When it comes to the 49ers offense, everything starts with star running back Christian McCaffrey. The Offensive Player of the Year candidate is the catalyst for everything this unit does on a weekly basis, and he can make an impact both on the ground or through the air.
However, this isn’t your usual dominant 49ers running game that Kyle Shanahan is used to having. San Francisco doesn’t have the same offensive line talent that it has had in some past years, and now Trent Williams may not play in this game due to a hamstring injury that he suffered in Week 17.
To this point in the season, McCaffrey ranks 30th in the NFL among qualified rushers in EPA per rush despite being one of the top total yardage-gainers due to the high volume that he gets.
Seattle’s defense excels at just about everything, but it is especially good at stopping the run. Opponents are generating negative-0.18 EPA per rush allowed against the Seattle defense so far this season, the least efficient mark in the league by a wide margin. Seattle is able to achieve that number despite playing with light boxes on more than 42% off their snaps, so they aren’t sacrificing coverage players to stop the run.
That ties into the second way that the Seahawks will be tasked with slowing down McCaffrey: in the passing game. The 49ers running back is one of the top pass-catchers in the league regardless of position and currently leads the Niners in targets (122), catches (96) and receiving yards (890).
The 49ers use...
