49ers-Colts preview: Why it’ll be the Brock Purdy and Jonathan Taylor show

49ers-Colts preview: Why it’ll be the Brock Purdy and Jonathan Taylor show
Niners Nation Niners Nation

The San Francisco 49ers travel to Naptown to take on the Indianapolis Colts. One team is surging and playing for the No. 1 seed, while the other is fighting for its playoff hopes.

The Niners are going to get the Colts’ best punch on Monday night. It’s a game Indy needs, so expect Shane Steichen — one of the brightest offensive minds in the game — to throw the kitchen sink at Kyle Shanahan on both sides of the ball.

Let’s dig into the matchup on both sides of the ball, starting with the area where the 49ers make their hay, through the air.

49ers passing attack versus the Colts’ passing defense

The table above supports Kyle Shanahan as Coach of the Year. Despite playing a handful of games with a backup quarterback and not having Ricky Pearsall for six games — not to mention George Kittle missing time— the 49ers’ passing attack remained lethal.

This season, they’ve had three performances that have been below expectations. The argument of a soft schedule also doesn’t hold up, as you can see, the passing defenses are mostly stingy from an EPA perspective.

Here are some of the passing game rankings through 15 weeks:

  • 2nd in passing success rate
  • 4th in passing DVOA
  • 4th in passing first down percentage
  • 4th in passing yards per game
  • 8th in dropback EPA

The Seattle Seahawks’ passing attack played like a team that wasn’t trying to lose last week’s game against the Colts. We saw Kyle Shanahan call plays that way in the second half against the Panthers in Week 12, but the last two weeks suggest he has the utmost confidence in his quarterback.

Darnold had 36 attempts against the Colts, and only two passes beyond 20 yards. Only eight of those passes went past 10 yards. And it’s not as if Darnold was heavily pressured. He only saw pressure on nine of his dropbacks.

That lack of pressure works in the 49ers’ favor. Against the Titans last week, Brock Purdy was pressured on 41.7 percent of his dropbacks. If that number seems high, it was 51.6 percent before the bye week against the Browns. Oddly enough, Purdy seems just as comfortable when the bullets are flying, and opposite colored jerseys are flashing around him.

One thing we can guarantee is that Purdy won’t be gun-shy about pushing the ball down the field. Purdy had three attempts beyond 20 yards against the Titans and another 11 at the intermediate level between 10 and 19 yards. That’s the area where Purdy wants to live, especially in the middle of the field. Last week, he went 5-for-6 for 95 yards between the hashes beyond ten yards. That’s Purdy’s wheelhouse.

We’re not saying the 49ers are as potent as the Rams’ passing attack, but when Matthew Stafford went against the Colts way back in Week 4, he was 4-for-4 over the middle of the field at the intermediate level with a touchdown. He...