Crossing Broad
One of the unique things about the Super Bowl is that the betting and trading options are so widespread that it sometimes becomes hard to narrow the focus. You can scroll for days before putting anything in the bet slip.
Where do you place your units? Props? Spreads? Parlays? Novelty items?
Let’s keep it simple and look at eight bets I’ve pulled from BetMGM and ESPN Bet:
1) Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer: -115 (BetMGM)
A wise man once said that if it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. He was talking about Jalen Hurts ATS, which has been money more often than not for almost three full seasons now. It has hit 12 times in 20 games this year, regular season + post, which is a 60% cash rate. Hurts also ran for five touchdowns against the Chiefs in the 2023 road game and Super Bowl 57, so the recent history is on our side.
2) team to score the longest field goal: KC Chiefs, -140 (ESPN Bet)
While Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott have both underwhelmed from distance this season, Elliott has been more erratic. While this game is played indoors on turf, the prevailing thought is that the Eagles remain a bit wary of Elliott’s struggles from 50+. When you combine that with the fact that the Birds use the Brotherly Shove to convert on 3rd and short and 4th and short on the edge of field goal range, the likelihood they attempt anything from 45+ seems less likely than Kansas City sending Butker out there.
3) total match punts: under 6.5 at -120 (ESPN Bet)
The AFC Championship Game only had four punts while the NFC Championship Game had three. All four teams in those games were known for their offensive prowess and tendency to go on fourth down, rather than kick.
Similarly, the Chiefs/Eagles Super Bowl only had four total punts while Eagles were 2-2 on fourth down. So we’ll consider the punt-heavy 2023 regular season game as the statistical outlier and play the under this time.
4) player to record the longest reception: A.J. Brown +300 (ESPN Bet)
At +300, this is a half unit or three-quarter unit play.
The thinking is this:
While a number of receivers on both teams are liable to break a big one with yards after the catch, A.J. Brown always gets a go ball or two in every Eagles game. So we’re playing the air yards angle here, hoping for a scenario or two where the Birds get a 1v1 on the outside and throw it up there for Brown to go grab.
In Super Bowl 57, both Brown and DeVonta Smith had catches of 45 yards, and in six games this season Brown caught a pass of 30+ yards. That’s WITH Saquon Barkley running for 2,000 over 16 regular season matchups.
5) total Eagles players to record a rushing attempt: under 3.5, -160 (ESPN Bet)
Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are players one and two. Kenny Gainwell...
