NFL Trade Rumors
The best predictor of what will happen is what has already happened. But just because something happened a particular way once or twice — or even several times — doesn’t mean it will happen that way again in the future.
If that sounds like a headache, welcome to the prediction business. Everyone wants to know the future, but no one knows exactly what’s going to happen. The best most of us can do is make an educated guess. That’s what this column has been for the past few years, going off the idea that in the NFL, where parity is a cherished value, about half the teams in the playoffs should turn over from year to year.
Historically, that’s proven to be the case over the past 10 years, even after the NFL expanded the playoffs from 12 to 14 teams in 2020. The numbers fluctuate a little year to year, but as a rule, 50 percent turnover holds up well — most of the time:
You might notice last year stands out a bit. There were just four newcomers to crash the playoff party last year, the lowest since 2015. It’s not a coincidence 2024 was also the starkest gap between the haves and the have-nots in the league in a while. Six teams finished with four or fewer wins, while five had 13 or more. A playoff prediction article based on the idea of 50 percent turnover would not have fared well last year.
This year’s article isn’t guaranteed to fare any better even with the idea that things should regress to the mean this year. But it’s still an interesting exercise to reveal what’s possible in a topsy-turvy NFL season. Injuries will play a big role in the turnover, especially at the quarterback position. Few teams are positioned to withstand losing their starting quarterback for an extended period of time. For other teams, some red flags stand out heading into the 2025 season — and conversely, some teams seem poised to take advantage.
Teams that are strong along the line of scrimmage are usually tough to knock out, while weaknesses in those areas can be tough to overcome. The Texans still made the playoffs last year but failed to live up to preseason Super Bowl hopes because of a leaky offensive line that undercut the whole offense. Those problems overshadowed a defensive line on the other side that was borderline elite and projects to be just as good in 2025. Houston put a lot of effort into fixing the offensive line this offseason but it’s not clear if they got more talented.
Chemistry and communication were huge issues for the Texans on the offensive line last year, and...
