Hogs Haven
The Commanders finally pulled out of the nose-dive in Week 15, with a 29-21 win over the New York Giants. The game showed that the Commanders still have the fight in them to bounce back from a disappointing shutout loss, and featured strong performances from rookie RB Bill Crosky-Merritt and PR Jaylin Lane, which bode well for a bounce back in 2026.
While the win will help to restore flagging confidence in the team’s direction in the near term, it also dealt a setback to the Commanders’ quest for a top-five draft pick. Entering Week 16, the Commanders sit in eighth place in the draft order based on current W-L record and Strength of Schedule (SOS), a drop of 2 positions from their position in Week 6.
Despite the setback, fans cheering for premium draft position can take heart. It was not a complete disaster, thanks in part to help from one of the teams ahead of Washington in the draft order. While a top-five finish is looking increasingly unlikely, the Commanders’ draft position is more likely than not to improve in Week 16, and there are realistic possibilities to move even further up the board.
There is no sugar coating the fact that the Commanders’ win over the Giants complicates their quest for a pick near the very top of the draft order. Yet, with just three games remaining in the regular season, it is still mathematically possible for Washington to finish with the first overall pick.
Realistically though, to move up more than one place from where they are now, the Commanders would have to beat some of the best tankers in the business at their own game. As bad as the season has gone, the Commanders just aren’t up to the level of competition that they face at the top of the draft order.
To get a better idea of how high the Commanders can realistically expect to climb, and how far they could fall in the final three games, let’s have a look at how the draft order would shape up if the season ended today, courtesy of Tankathon:
The Giants currently sit atop the draft order, with a narrow SOS margin over the second-place Raiders and a sizeable advantage over the Titans in third place. In order for Washington to overtake any of these teams, the team in question would have to win two of their remaining games, while Washington loses out.
The Commanders’ best chance for advancement in this group is probably the Giants, who showed some spunk in last week’s loss and have remaining games against the Vikings and Raiders, before closing the season against the Cowboys, who might be looking to preserve their own draft position in a meaningless game.
The Raiders and Titans each have one remaining game against a playoff-seeded opponent (Raiders vs Texans; Titans vs Jaguars), one game against a softer opponent (Raiders vs Giants;...
