Hogs Haven
Both teams approached the Week 14 match between the Commanders and Vikings badly in need of a get-right win. The mood on Hogs Haven was upbeat, with Jayden Daniels’ first start since Week 9 headlining a list of starters recently returning from injury. A week after taking the second-seed Denver Broncos to an overtime nail-biter, it might have felt like Washington had the advantage, even on the road.
That just goes to show that a 3-9 team on a seven-game losing streak can’t take any games for granted. Who knew?
With the 0-31 blowout loss to the previously struggling Minnesota Vikings, the Commanders became the first team to be eliminated from the playoffs in Week 14. This was not the get-right win that Commanders fans had hoped for, but should not have surprised anyone.
The Commanders’ defense ranks 31st in the NFL, at an alarming +0.156 EPA/play. You really want that figure to be negative – the Texans’ defense leads the league at -0.131 EPA/play. The Commanders rank dead last in dropback EPA/play at an eye-popping +0.267, and rank 26th against the run at +0.004.
The offense has scored enough points to win many of their games this season, and has only scored under 21 pts five times. They rank an almost respectable 14th in EPA/play at 0.028. Well, at least they are in positive territory. However, Jayden Daniels’ dismal performance on his return from injury is sure to fuel growing unease about the possibility that the team’s star QB could be regressing in his second season.
If that were not enough to give Commanders’ fans sleepless nights, the injury bug bit back hard in Minnesota, with TE Zach Ertz suffering a season-ending ACL tear, and Daniels re-injuring his left elbow.
The Commanders will have a lot of work to do this off-season to right the ship and set the franchise rebuild back on course. While the loss to one of their easiest remaining opponents on paper was not what they needed to keep the momentum heading in a positive direction, there is at least a thin sliver of a silver lining.
The loss to the Vikings allowed the Commanders to maintain their hold on sixth place in the draft order, rather than sliding to tenth place, behind the Rams (courtesy of the Falcons), which would have happened if they had won.
A difference of four places might not seem that big in the overall scheme of things, but it could spell the difference between drafting an elite playmaker on defense (e.g. DE Rueben Bain, S Caleb Downs, LB/Edge Arvell Reese) and picking from the next tier of prospects. Alternatively, dropping four places in the top 10 could be enough to move the Commanders out of position for a blockbuster trade offer, to reload Adam Peters with the draft capital he needs to upgrade multiple roster positions.
While most Commanders fans will be cheering for their team to win each of their remaining games, the reality is that that’s just...
