Mile High Report
How did Bo Nix compare to other starters and to the other rookie starters?
I did a quick analysis of the QB play from 2024 a few months back, but this is going to be much more in-depth.
There were six QBs drafted in the top 12 in 2024, but two did not play or did not play enough to qualify for this analysis (200 passing attempts). Bo Nix, for those who haven’t been paying attention, was the sixth QB drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft. Spencer Rattler was the other rookie QB who had enough passes to qualify - he was not drafted in the first round. This is going to use PFR advanced passing data and SISdatahub.com advanced passing data to compare all starting QBs from 2024, but there will be a focus on the rookies for comparative purposes.
For the PFR data I used 150 passing attempts which meant that 46 QBs qualified. For SIS I used 200 passing attempts so 39 QBs qualified. I didn’t realize the difference until I was well into the study, but I don’t think it makes a huge difference in the analysis.
NFL NextGen Stats has a heat map for each starting QB with direction and distance. Bo Nix’ heat map is below. Green is good, yellow is average, red is bad. While Bo only had three green zones, he also only had one red zone.
This graphic uses the old passer rating which has plenty of issues. For comparison, below are the same charts for Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. Daniels had five green zones and two red zones. Williams had six green zones and three red zones. So Bo was more consistent, than either, having less bad but also less good.
Drake Maye was the only one of the “Big 6” who had more red zones than green zones as a rookie starter.
The first table shows how often QBs were on-target with their throws in 2024. I have highlighted the rookies. I was surprised at how often Williams was off-target, but his OL was terrible in 2024 so maybe he will improve in 2025.
Bo Nix was 20th with an on-target rate of 76.6%. Geno Smith was the best at 81.8% and Anthony Richardson was the worst at 58.0. He was a big step below Michael Penix at 67.0 The only rookie who was more on-target than Nix was Jayden Daniels.
Bo Nix was not pressured very much at 17.1% which was the 6th lowest. This was mostly a function of his good OL, but it was also a function of his ability to move in the pocket to avoid pressure. Tua Tagovailoa was the QB with the lowest pressure rate at 13.3%, but that was mainly a function of how quickly he has to throw in the Dolphin offense. Jacoby Brissett was the most frequently pressured QB at 33.0%.
Nix was hit at the 6th lowest rate at 5.3%. Tua was hit at the lowest rate 2.6%....
