1 dark-horse reason Bears could pull off upset of Rams in Divisional Round

This matchup feels bigger than expected. On paper, it already looks daunting. The Los Angeles Rams arrive with one of the league’s most explosive offenses. They have an MVP-caliber quarterback and a roster built to win now. The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, are still technically early in their competitive arc. Yet playoff football has never cared much for resumes. It rewards edges that don’t show up in highlight packages or betting lines. In this Divisional Round clash, the Bears may be sitting on a dark-horse advantage that could eventually swing the outcome.

How Chicago got here

The 2025 season has already rewritten the Bears’ recent history. Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, Chicago surged to an 11-6 regular-season record. They captured their first NFC North title since 2018. After stumbling out of the gate at 0-2, Chicago went 11-4 the rest of the way. The Bears leaned on a creative, aggressive offense and a defense that led the league in takeaways.

Quarterback Caleb Williams guided the turnaround with poise beyond his years. Meanwhile, a ball-hawking defense consistently flipped field position. That formula carried over into January, when the Bears erased a late deficit to stun Green Bay 31–27 in the Wild Card round. That secured their first playoff win since the 2010 season. Confidence is no longer theoretical in Chicago but lived experience.

Loaded with contrasts

The Bears now host the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round on Sunday night at Soldier Field. Los Angeles comes in fresh off a dramatic Wild Card victory of its own. It’s a classic styles clash: the Rams’ top-ranked offense versus a Bears defense that thrives on disruption rather than dominance.

At quarterback, Williams squares off against veteran Matthew Stafford. The latter has been one of the league’s most productive passers this season. The Rams will try to stress Chicago vertically and force the Bears into shootout territory. Chicago, meanwhile, wants to slow the game. They want to protect the football and turn Soldier Field into the kind of uncomfortable environment that magnifies every mistake. That last part matters more than it usually does.

Here we’ll try to look at and discuss the 1 dark-horse reason Bears could pull off upset of Rams in the Divisional Round.

Dark-horse factor

The single most overlooked reason the Bears could pull off this upset isn’t schematic or philosophical. It’s actually environmental. Soldier Field has quietly been one of the most hostile kicking environments in the NFL, particularly for visiting teams. Wind patterns swirl unpredictably, and footing can deteriorate quickly. For kickers, confidence evaporates fast once a he feels even a slight gust off Lake Michigan.

Since the 2016 season, visiting kickers have made just 54 percent of field-goal attempts from 40–45 yards at Soldier Field. They have converted only 13 of 24 tries. League-wide, that same range typically hovers around an 81 percent success rate. That gap is massive, and in playoff football, that can be decisive.

Chicago saw it firsthand in the Wild Card...