Trade Down Island: How the Panthers can smartly trade down in the 2024 NFL Draft

Trade Down Island: How the Panthers can smartly trade down in the 2024 NFL Draft
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Your Benevolent Dictator has returned by providing Dan Morgan with a blueprint to win the first draft of his GM tenure.

With the calendar turned to April, we are officially in “Draft Month”. To celebrate this blessed season I’m cranking out content centered on the Panthers recent draft history, the perils of trading up, the beauty of trading down, and slipping in another “BYU Homer” post telling the Panthers front office which former Cougar they should add to the roster.

Today we’re going to indulge my trade down fever dream.

But first, as the Benevolent Dictator of Trade Down Island, I demand you read TDI’s Constitution to give you context about my overall “trade down” philosophy. Do it! Now! That’s an order!

The TDI Constitution context helps. At a high level my belief is the NFL draft is merely educated guesswork, so more picks means a higher likelihood of success. If a potential Pro Bowler is available in Rounds 1-2, then take him! But if a virtual “sure thing” isn’t on the draft board, which is usually the case, then smartly trade down a few spots early to accumulate additional picks.

With that out of the way, let me adorn myself in my Trade Down Island dictator’s uniform (think Gilligan as an island ruler) and mandate what GM Dan Morgan should do on draft day.

My approach in the trade down scenarios shown below is to use actual, real-life draft day trades from 2023 that mirror the picks the Panthers currently possess. My assumption is similar deals will be available for Carolina’s front office this year as were available last year. Here we go:

Pick No. 33 - Draft the best offensive player available

Every year at least a couple of talented prospects with mid-first round draft grades unexpectedly slip into the second round. The focus early in the draft needs to remain on building a solid offense around Bryce Young. I’d suggest Dan Morgan and his staff land a quality wide receiver, tight end, or center at No. 33.

Pick No. 39 - Trade down to No. 44, pick up No. 115

2023 Comparable: The Indianapolis Colts traded No. 38 to the Atlanta Falcons for the No. 44 pick and No. 110 in the fourth round. Since the Panthers have No. 39 (one spot lower than the Colts No. 38), we’ll assume they can get No. 115 in return.

Moving down five spots in the second round in order to acquire an extra pick in the middle of the fourth round is the lifeblood of the Trade Down Island economy. At a high level, there is virtually no difference in the talent available at No. 39 versus No. 44. Unless the Panthers are passing on a potential Pro Bowler at No. 39, they should trade down a few spots and take another swing in the fourth round.

Pick No. 65 - Trade down to No. 68, pick up No. 195 and No. 235

2023 Comparable: The Philadelphia Eagles *swapped...