Stampede Blue
Indianapolis, IN — Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs has been a fan favorite since being drafted in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Wildly considered a ‘steal’ of a draft selection, Downs’ draft day reaction was captured and subsequently viewed as fuel for the young wideout. His grateful yet determined demeanor suggested that he’d be out to prove his doubters wrong, and he has throughout his short career thus far.
A demon out of the slot, particularly when matched up against linebackers in coverage, Josh Downs has remained a reliable option. Not only does Downs have a knack for turning upfield and notching first down gains, but he’s also consistently reliable on money downs (3rd/4th). Through his first two seasons in the NFL, here’s how Downs fared:
2023 (17 games): 68 receptions on 98 targets (69.4% catch rate) for 771 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns, and 30 first down gains (44% conversion rate).
2024 (14 games): 72 receptions on 107 targets (67.3% catch rate) for 804 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns, and 40 first down gains (55% conversion rate).
So far in 2025, Downs has remained productive, yet he’s been featured less in the offense. He’s totaled 3 receiving touchdowns in 10 games played so far, and is currently sporting a career-high catch percentage (70.4%) and first down conversion rate (61%). Here’s Josh Downs’ on-pace season total:
2025 (on pace for 16 games): 60.8 receptions on 86.4 targets for 521.6 receiving yards, 4.8 touchdowns, and 36.8 first down conversions.
Is Josh Downs in the doghouse? Did his (generous) number change result in bad juju? Are there now too many mouths to feed offensively?
Josh Downs’ total offensive snap count percentages throughout the years:
2023: 788 snaps (69%)
2024: 602 snaps (65%)
2025: 351 snaps (54%)
While it’s sometimes fun to speculate, the latter simply has to be the reason. Starting at the top, superstar running back Jonathan Taylor rightfully so demands most of the attention offensively, while stud wideouts in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce man the depth chart ahead of Downs. The continued emergence of Alec Pierce only makes matters worse (better), while the addition of rookie tight end Tyler Warren, the team’s leading receiver entering Week 13, explains how any given weapon on offense can be tossed to the wayside, regardless of intention.
The change in personnel, aka the addition of Warren, has unlocked a part of the offense that head coach Shane Steichen virtually couldn’t use through his first two years in Indianapolis: 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR). Here’s the Colts’ offensive personnel tendency by year, per Sumer Sports.
11 – (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs)
2023: 76.23%
2024: 70.70%
2025: 59.49%
12 – (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs)
2023: 19.20%
2024: 25.17%
2025: 26.91%
13 – (1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR)
2023: 2.47%
2024: 3.36%
2025: 11.96%
At the end of the day, there’s a lot of talent within Indy’s offense; therefore, distribution is hard to come by....
