Why Cowboys’ 2025 rookie class may deliver up to four starters

How much impact are you expecting from Cowboys rookies this year?

At irregular intervals over the last decade or so, I’ve tried to project the playing time of Cowboys rookie classes, with varying degrees of success.

• In 2015, the estimate was wildly over-optimistic in projecting 3,000 snaps for a rookie class that ended up playing just 2,092 combined snaps, or 9.1% of the total offensive and defensive snaps that year.
• In 2018, the projection was that the rookie class would play 12.1% (2,838) of all offensive and defensive snaps, and it was a pleasant surprise to find that the projection was very close: The 2018 rookies played exactly 12.1% (2.786) of all snaps.
• In 2020, the projection was 2,458 snaps (10.5%), but injuries to starters pushed the rookie totals to a staggering 3,501 snaps, or 14.0% of all snaps. 2020 UDFA Terence Steele alone accounted for 968 unforeseen snaps.
• In 2021, I was a bit optimistic in projecting almost 3,000 snaps (12.7%), mostly because of vastly overestimating the impact second-round pick Kelvin Joseph would have. Joseph’s paltry 164 rookie snaps limited the 2021 class to 2,510 snaps ( 9.7%)
• In 2024, I projected one of the strongest playing time contributions by a rookie class ever with 3,200 snaps and the rookie class came extremely close with 3,221 combined snaps. Unfortunately, this wasn’t because I am blessed with the gift of prophecy or have access to some top-secret algorithm. Instead, a promising draft class got extended playing time when the Cowboys decided not to acquire or retain free agents to fill key roster holes, and subsequent injuries to veteran players forced the team to play the rookies more than they might have in a normal season.

Today, I’ll try yet another projection, even if we all know that preseason projections are not worth much. And I’ll try to do it by looking at comparable rookies from previous Cowboys draft classes.

We know, for example, that the Cowboys almost always get an immediate strater when they invest a first-round pick in an offensive lineman. We also know that they’ve had issues (for various reasons) getting strong first-year production from 2nd-round edge rushers, or from late-round defensive tackles not named Jay Ratliff. So picking a comparable rookie from a previous draft class will likely temper our collective optimism and give us a more realistic expectation for the 2025 rookie class.

1st Rd: OG Tyler Booker. By now, the Cowboys have quite the track record with premium draft picks selected to fill specific holes on the O-line.

And we don’t have to go back very far here, we’ll use Tyler Smith and his 1,144 snaps in 2022 as a comparable for Booker.

2nd Rd: DE Donovan Ezeiruaku. The Cowboys history with Day 1/Day 2 pass rushers is less consistent. Here’s an overview going all the way back to DeMarcus Lawrence.

All the players(*) here except Taco Charlton missed sometimes significant playing time in their rookie seasons due to...