Stampede Blue
Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com****, Pro Football Focus** and the** nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
Week 12 saw the Colts’ worst offensive performance of the season. They managed 20 points thanks in part to a 3-yard field gifted by the defense, but overall they couldn’t sustain drives or move the ball down the field, as evidenced by their 55.6% Drive Success Rate — their lowest of the year and one of the lowest by any team in 2025.
Indy managed only 18 first downs on 10 drives, five of which ended in three-and-outs. Their 255 yards of offense marked their first sub-300-yard game of the season. And in the 4th quarter, with an 11-point lead, the Colts produced only 6 net yards of offense — followed by a massive 7 yards in overtime.
Mouseover for definitions: PPD, Adj PPD, W-L, Pyth Wins, PPG, Yds, DSR, Strt Fld, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%The 3-yard touchdown Indy backed into kept their Points per Drive average looking respectable, but by DSR they were the 3rd-worst offense of the week. And while the Colts produced a 14th-ranked yards per play, that number was heavily skewed by a couple of big plays. Their 27th-ranked success rate and 26th-ranked play-conversion rate reveal a truer picture of their struggles to move the ball.
Ironically, they posted a slightly above-average 3rd-down conversion rate, but that only highlights how misleading that stat can be. Most conversions in the league happen on 1st or 2nd down, and the Colts simply couldn’t manage those against the Chiefs.
This poor performance did little to change their season ranking though, as Indy still holds the top spot in Points per Drive — both raw and opponent-adjusted
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, Adj EPA/d, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sck, Sck Y, Sck Fum, Scrm, Scrm Yds, Scrm TD, Scrm Fum, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, CPOE, Air Yd, YAC, 20+ #/YdThe passing game mirrored the overall offensive metrics: by team EPA efficiency, the Colts looked fine, ranking 11th, but by success rate his Week 12 performance was the 6th-worst of the week. In short, a couple of big plays added solid value, but the vast majority of his snaps were negative.
On the year, I have the Colts as the 8th-best passing offense, both in raw and opponent-adjusted views.
Mouseover definitions: wgt RSR, adj RSR, YDS, CAR, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, EPA/c, This was a rare game where the Colts could not run the ball. Many people were...
