Hogs Haven
It’s week 13 of the NFL season, and the 3-8 Washington Commanders will be facing a 9-2 Denver Broncos team at home in Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD this Sunday at 8:20 pm ET. After losing 2 of their first 3 games against the Colts and Chargers, the Broncos have gone on to win their last 8 games, despite all but one being within a single score.
On offense, the Broncos are coached by HC (and playcaller) Sean Payton and OC Joe Lombardi. Sean Payton has traditionally run a hybrid West Coast Offense focusing on short and intermediate passes, but is also known for building his offense around the strengths of his QB. In the case of the Broncos with Bo Nix, that has meant adding more RPOs and focusing heavily on screen passes. All this has resulted in an offense that is ranked 17th in passing yards per game and 10th in rushing yards per game. That’s not the whole story though, because the Broncos have been known for a rather lackluster offense in quarters 1-3, but really heating up in the 4th quarter. The Broncos have an amazing +63 point differential in the 4th quarter this year, the best in the NFL. That 4th-quarter differential has been critical, as the Broncos have played nine 1-score games this year, winning 7 and losing 2 (their only losses). It helps that their defense can always keep them in games.
On defense, the Broncos are coached by DC Vance Joseph. Joseph runs a 4-3 front with the 8th-highest blitz rate in the NFL and the 5th-highest rate of man coverage. The Broncos secondary is one of the best in the NFL, able to win in man most of the time, which allows their DC to bring extra players down as blitzers to supplement an already talented front 7. In terms of talented players, the Broncos are headlined by All Pro CB Patrick Surtain II and All Pro pass rusher Nik Bonitto. All of this results in a defense that is ranked 3rd in total yards allowed, 6th in passing yards allowed, and 2nd in rushing yards allowed.
I asked Ian St. Clair of Mile High Report five questions to better understand the state of the Broncos and what to look for in this game.
1) The Broncos offense has seemed to look rough to start many games, but rallies in the 4th quarter. Why do you think the offense has looked somewhat pedestrian in quarters 1-3 and why does it take off in the 4th?
This is the key question when it comes to the Broncos, and seemingly everyone has a different answer. My tinfoil hat theory is that Sean Payton is playing 3D chess with the opposition by presenting the most vanilla and bland offensive game plan he can devise, at least for the first three quarters. Then, in the fourth quarter, he opens up the offense for Bo Nix. It’s not totally crazy, right? In all seriousness, I...
