Battle Red Blog
“There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” — Mark Twain
The line above is often attributed to Mark Twain, but we have no proof that he was the first one to say it. The Googles will say that it was either him or someone else and that rabbit hole is a perfect example of the quote itself. Truth is often a four letter word. The simply reality is that the numbers themselves can’t lie. The only thing that can really happen is that people can either lie about the numbers, lie about what they mean, or completely misunderstand them.
We always throw out these caveats when we start breaking down numbers. I make no bones about the fact that I am a data driven individual. I come from the point of view that the numbers can explain what can’t be explained in a few words. We know what we see, but our vocabulary struggles to articulate it. Bill James once said that good statistics take on the qualities of language. I prefer to think of it as a portrait. Some numbers paint stick figures. Others paint beautiful mosaics.
When Nick Caley was hired, there was one clear mandate: create an offense that will be measurably better than the one Bobby Slowik captained. We knew the defense was going to be great. We also knew the schedule was going to be tougher. Sure enough, the record of the teams beating the Texans is a combined 33-13 going into the game with the Tennessee Titans. The four teams they have beaten are a combined 16-21.
As per usual, we begin with the aggregate and work our way backwards. We are looking at what will likely be a 5-5 football team after this week’s game. We can surmise that the overall numbers will improve across the board. So, let’s see if we can gauge the differences. Caley was brought in to do three things: make the running game more efficient, make C.J. Stroud more efficient, and keep him off of his backside.
The last number is probably the number that got Slowik fired. That total made the Texans one of the five worst teams in the NFL at avoiding sacks. Now, was that just the offensive line? Of course not. Stroud often held the ball too long and the offense itself tried too many down the field throws. Caley ostensibly said he would rely more on the quick, short passing game that Tom Brady became famous for. The general idea is that he would complete a higher percentage of passes and take on fewer sacks.
I could include league ranks, but the general idea is to focus on the mandate. The mandate was for Caley to be better than Slowik. So,...
