Acme Packing Company
The Green Bay Packers are fortunate that, despite a great rushing performance from his team throughout the entire second half, Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson decided instead to put Sunday’s game in Caleb Williams’ hands on the critical fourth-and-one. Now, Green Bay has two weeks to make sure that doesn’t happen to them again when the two teams meet again at Soldier Field.
It was an all-too-familiar feeling for Packers fans in that second half. The defense had been on the field too long because they couldn’t get off the field and the offense was either scoring quickly or punting quickly, not buying them much rest. There was not a single explosive allowed by the Green Bay run defense, with Chicago’s longest designed run going for just nine yards, which makes Chicago’s elite running performance all the more concerning to Green Bay going forward.
By EPA-per-rush, Chicago had a 92nd percentile performance, putting up +0.18 EPA-per-rush. This actually hides exactly how effective the running backs were, as Caleb Williams and Luther Burden are each credited with one designed run each, both for significantly negative EPA-per-rush. Just the running backs alone were able to put up +0.22 EPA-per-rush. For context, the Indianapolis Colts have the most efficient running game in the NFL at just shy of +0.1 EPA-per-rush, and that is with all-world running back Jonathan Taylor and one of the better run blocking lines in the league. Chicago’s offensive line is considerably improved from the past few seasons, grading out as one of the best units in the league in both pass pro, but especially in the run game.
Chicago’s strong offensive line has helped support a strong running game, which now ranks fourth in the league at +0.01 EPA-per-rush and second in success rate at 47%. On Sunday, Chicago had an astounding success rate of 67% on designed runs and 65% on early down runs. This is how Chicago was able to keep themselves in third and extremely manageable for the entirety of the second half.
Chicago had six third-and-ones in the second half, and the final play of the game was obviously a fourth-and-one. It was the entire reason they were able to sustain drives and keep Caleb Williams from having to play a traditional dropback game, which Ben Johnson was avoiding like the plague. Green Bay got away with it on Sunday, but if they want another win at Soldier Field in two weeks, the run defense will have to force Chicago into more difficult third-and-medium/third-and-long situations, or Chicago may even the season series up.
