Battle Red Blog
At 7-5 and currently out of the postseason, the Texans have little margin to work with.
According to ESPN, they hold a 52% chance to get into the playoffs after their win against the then-division leading Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Houston’s ascension up the AFC playoff polls has been remarkable even if offense lacks the same conviction.
Even with the win against Indianapolis, Houston’s playoff hopes didn’t budge from since last week due to every wild card team winning last week. Plus, Jacksonville’s stalwart refusal to go back to their den at the bottom of the AFC makes Houston’s chance to win the division much more arduous.
This playoff race is more hotly contested than getting into the door at Target on Black Friday. The remaining AFC contenders didn’t do the Texans any favors after the Chargers, Jaguars, and Bills all moved to 8-4. Plus, both the Ravens and Chiefs loom large in the playoff hunt.
So, why can Houston only afford to lose one more game this season? It comes down to history, statistics, and the remaining schedule. Houston faces Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers, and Indianapolis plus two doormats in Arizona and Las Vegas. Losses to two of the three quality opponents will give them head-to-head tie breakers, not to mention improved overall records. If Houston splits the series with Indianapolis, the Colts will most likely have the AFC South division tie breaker.
Even so, this year has been incredibly competitive. Since 2020, the average wild card team has won 10.3 games. Eleven wins almost guarantees a berth, while 10 wins typically keeps a team in the hunt. However, with every wild card contender already at eight wins, Houston needs to go 4–1 while at least one other team goes 3–2. That’s a tall task given their schedule. The win over the Colts bought them some breathing room and opened the door to winning the division for the first time all season. This race is like merging onto 610 after work—technically moving forward, but the looming stress is brutal.
What’s more interesting is the tightening AFC South race. Houston has only one more divisional game left, but winning it would strengthen both their division record and conference record (currently 6–2), which could become their ace in the hole.
Next up, Houston goes to play a wavering Kansas City Chiefs team. Both teams must win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Kansas City lost a close game against the Cowboys last week due to their defense struggling against Dak’s prolific passing offense.
Whether Houston makes it through the wild card or AFC South, they’ll need to keep an almost clean sheet to do so.
