Niners Nation
The 49ers will duke it out with the Cardinals down the stretch
Twelve wins for the 49ers is the best-case scenario in 2024, but that would mean the team would go undefeated down the stretch with a difficult schedule remaining. It’s not impossible, but it’s very improbable. Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network analytics expert, has released her NFL win/loss projections with each team’s probabilities and odds to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.
Frelund has San Francisco’s ceiling at 12 wins but set the floor at eight wins with an over/under of 9.5 wins after predicting the over with ten wins. At -175, the 49ers are still favorites to qualify for the NFC playoffs and win the NFC West at +135. +425 are the odds for the 49ers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and +1000 to raise the Lombardi.
The current division-leading Arizona Cardinals are projected to be on the outside looking in for the NFC playoffs, according to Frelund, and she adds: “Yes, in the order we have here, the current leaders of the NFC West end up missing the playoffs. But the truth is, the race in that division is wide open. The return to health of running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Deebo Samuel, along with continued excellent play from Brock Purdy, helps put San Francisco slightly on top of Arizona in the median projection.
However, you will notice that the Cardinals’ projected ceiling (12.8 wins) is higher than the Niners’ (12.2). Arizona is definitely in line to outperform its preseason projected win total (6.9), which was the lowest in the division. Four of the Cardinals’ seven remaining games are divisional matchups, including two contests against the Seahawks — and they have Kyler Murray, whose win share ranks fifth among all QBs through 10 weeks of the season. Arizona makes the playoffs in 49.9 percent of simulations, which means its postseason fate basically comes down to a coin flip.”
If Frelund’s projections come to fruition, the 49ers would finish with the third seed and at least one home playoff game. Week 18’s matchup with the Cardinals could be for the NFC West. Either way, the remaining schedule will be fun to monitor for the entire NFC.
