Pats Pulpit
The New England Patriots have not won their division since 2019, but they are well-positioned to recapture the AFC East crown this season. After previously beating the Buffalo Bills 23-20 in Week 5, thus gaining a head-to-head advantage over the five-time defending champion, they have now started pulling away a bit further.
While the Patriots celebrated a 28-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, the Bills were upset 30-13 by the Miami Dolphins. As a consequence, the Patriots now hold a one-and-a-half game advantage over their rivals and are facing significantly better odds: according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, their chances of winning the AFC East now stand at 86% up from 60% last week.
While there is plenty of football left to be played for both teams — starting with a primetime game between the Patriots and New York Jets on Thursday — head coach Mike Vrabel and company hold the advantage over Buffalo halfway through the season.
On the bubble: 8. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4), 9. Houston Texans (4-5), 10. Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 11. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6), 12. Miami Dolphins (3-7), 13. New York Jets (2-7), 14. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7), 15. Cleveland Browns (2-7), 16. Tennessee Titans (1-8)
The Patriots’ AFC East odds are not the only ones that improved this week. They now also have a chance of more than 99% to make the playoffs, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for best in the league. Meanwhile, no other team in either conference has a higher chance at a first-round by than New England’s 43%.
That is despite the Patriots slipping from second to third in the AFC since last week. The reason for that is their conference record: at 4-2, they lose that particular tiebreaker to the 6-1 Colts and 5-2 Broncos.
The NFC playoff picture, meanwhile, looks as follows:
On the bubble: 8. San Francisco 49ers (6-4), 9. Carolina Panthers (5-5), 10. Minnesota Vikings (4-5), 11. Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1), 12. Arizona Cardinals (3-6), 13. Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 14. Washington Commanders (3-7), 15. New Orleans Saints (2-8), 16. New York Giants (2-8)
The Buccaneers’ loss to the Patriots caused them to drop two spots in the NFC standings. After previously being ranked No. 2 behind the Eagles, they have now been leap-frogged by both the Seahawks and Lions — the latter overtaking the Packers, losers of two straight, atop the NFC North.
There also was a change at the bottom of the...
