Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions haven’t done themselves any favors when it comes to their playoff chances. They’re just 3-4 in their last seven games, and they’ve dropped critical games to the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. In addition to that, though, they’ve gotten a tremendous amount of bad luck when it comes to games out of their control. In Week 13, Detroit again essentially got zero help from the other NFC matchups, and their playoff odds (per the NYT simulator) dropped from 73% after Week 12 to just 30% now.
Let’s take a closer look at the divisional and conference playoff races.
The bad news for Detroit is that their odds to win the NFC North have plummeted to just 4 percent, according to the New York Times. The good news is that the dim light of hope is kept alive by the fact that the Packers and Bears still have to play each other twice in the final five weeks. If winning the division is the goal for Detroit, a best-case scenario may be a Bears sweep—handing the Packers two critical losses. The Lions will still be able to make up one game on Chicago with their head-to-head matchup in Week 18, and as long as Chicago loses one of their other games (vs. Browns, @49ers), Detroit could catch them.
But all of that seems fairly far-fetched and essentially requires the Lions to win-out. A more realistic outcome is for the Lions to win a Wild Card playoff spot, and the Packers sweeping the Bears is the best outcome for those chances. Let’s take a look at the full playoff picture and explain:
Division leaders:
Wild Card race (top three advance):
5. Seahawks: 9-3
6. Packers: 8-3-1
7. 49ers: 9-4
8. Lions: 7-5
9. Cowboys: 6-5-1
10. Panthers: 7-6
Note: Every NFC team not listed has below a 1% chance to make the postseason
In Week 13, the Lions only got one game outcome in their favor: The Rams losing to the Panthers. And even that outcome has a downside: the Panthers are still in the playoff race now. While I think it’s unlikely a second NFC West team makes the postseason—especially with the Bucs and Panthers playing each other two more times—it certainly a bit unnerving to see another team hanging around. Catching the Rams is unlikely, but it’s still on the table for the Lions. Detroit is just two games behind them, and with a head-to-head match in Week 15, they could clear one right there and win the primary tiebreaker.
The rest of the outlook remains the same. The Lions’ best shot at making the playoffs involves jumping the Bears, Seahawks, Packers, or 49ers—while keeping the trailing Cowboys and Panthers at bay. Frustratingly, all six of those teams won this past week....
