Big Cat Country
Our favorite Jaguars player props for Week 11 against the Lions.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are taking on the Detroit Lions at 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday. Here are our favorite player prop bets (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook) for this week’s contest.
Amon-Ra St. Brown under 6.5 receptions (-113)
Similar to fading A.J. Brown two weeks ago, I just can’t see the Lions having to pass by the second half. St. Brown has caught 7-plus passes in just four of nines games this season, with all but one being a one-score game. It’s possible he hits his props by halftime — but there’s also a chance he’ll be resting on the sideline by then.
Jared Goff over 1.5 touchdown passes (-130)
Yes, the same concerns exist with Goff — he might not have enough opportunities to hit his props — but Goff will be motivated to put up points in a get-right game after he tossed 5 interceptions last week. Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ pass defense ranks dead last in passer rating allowed, net yards per attempt allowed, and EPA per dropback allowed.
Travis Etienne under 51.5 rushing yards (-110)
As much as I appreciate the player — I called Etienne the best buy-low in fantasy football on social media this week — he does not have a good matchup today. Detroit has allowed the fourth-fewest carries, rushing yards and fantasy points to running backs this season. Even if Etienne earns every Jaguars rushing attempt against the Lions, there won’t be many opportunities given the double-digit-point spread, and those limited reps will mostly be sniffed out by Detroit.
D’Ernest Johnson under 8.5 receiving yards (-110)
Johnson has only seen 1 target since Etienne returned from his hamstring injury in Week 9. Though Johnson does play a considerable amount on passing downs, and the Jaguars figure to be in plenty of passing downs today, he enters games because he’s trusted as a blocker against blitzers. Plus, Detroit has allowed the fourth-fewest receptions and the eighth-fewest receiving yards to running backs this season.
Brian Thomas Jr. under 4.5 receptions (-152)
Brian Thomas Jr. over 5.5 first quarter receiving yards (-114)
While I don’t have confidence in the Jaguars’ coaching staff scheming Thomas Jr. open for all four quarters, I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a point to feature him early, considering all the backlash on the subject from this week. Everyone in Jacksonville is wondering why Thomas Jr. only has just 4 catches for 34 yards over the past two weeks.
Jake Bates total kicking points over 8.5 (-114)
Bates is a beast. He’s the only kicker this season to have a 100% field goal rate (min. 7 attempts) and he ranks third in extra point makes. Since the Lions are generally expected to score at will and post 30-plus points against the Jaguars, I like investing in their placekicker.
Full Week 11 betting slip:
