Since the Kansas City Chiefs have been on their bye week, I decided to compare our weekly Madden simulations to the real-life 2025 Chiefs to see how they stack up against each other.
As you can see, Madden correctly predicted the winner in six of the nine games. Among the eight Arrowhead Pride contributors who have made predictions this season, no one has picked the winner more often. I also calculated the points of error* for each one of the Madden picks — just like we do for our weekly predictions. Madden has averaged 27.8 points of error, which is worse than all but one of our weekly panelists.
So Madden has been pretty good at picking the winner of each Kansas City game this season, but not very good at predicting the final scores of those games.
The Madden-simulated Chiefs entered the bye week with an 8–1 record. Madden’s predicted loss actually came true in Week 5, when the Jacksonville Jaguars scored exactly 31 points — just as the simulation had predicted. That simulation also came the closest to matching the 31-28 result — and was the only game this season in which the Madden prediction was closer than those made by all our AP panelists.
Of course, Madden also predicted three Kansas City wins that didn’t happen.
Let’s look at some season statistics.
Opponent Passing
- In the Madden simulations, the opposing quarterback has been sharp, with a 77% completion rate, 2,079 yards, 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
- In reality, opposing quarterbacks haven’t fared quite as well, recording a 71.5% completion rate for 1,763 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions. While still efficient, the turnovers and slightly lower yardage show that the real-life version hasn’t quite matched the Madden consistency.
Opponent rushing
- On the ground, the Madden simulation had the Chiefs surrendering 102 rushing attempts for 667 yards and eight touchdowns. That comes out to 6.5 yards per carry — though that number is inflated by quarterback runs. When isolating running backs, the defense allowed just 67 carries for 301 yards, a much more respectable 4.4 yards per rush.
- In real life, Kansas City’s run defense has faced a heavier volume, giving up 219 rushing attempts for 941 yards — a 4.3-yard average — and nine touchdowns. The numbers suggest the simulation slightly overstated the big-play runs, but otherwise accurately portrayed how opponents found occasional success on the ground.
Patrick Mahomes
- Through the simulated season, quarterback Mahomes has been nearly flawless, completing 86% of his passes. He’s thrown for 2,454 yards — an average of 272.6 per game — with 20 passing touchdowns and added 162 rushing yards and five scores on the ground.
- In reality, Mahomes’ numbers are still elite but a bit more human. He’s completed 64.6% of his passes for 2,349 yards (261 per game), tossing 17 touchdowns with five interceptions. On the ground, he’s been even more productive than the simulations expected, with 285 rushing yards and four...
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