Crossing Broad
The Philadelphia Eagles morphed into a covering machine over the last month-and-a-half.
The Birds, who are a 2.5-point favorite against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night, are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
The impressive run against the spread moved the Birds back to .500 as a betting favorite. They are 4-4 ATS when favored.
On the other hand, the Rams haven’t done much covering of any spreads in 2024. They’re one of 13 NFL teams with a record of two games below .500 or worse against the spread.
The Rams are an average 2-3 ATS as an underdog and they have no significant trend to the over/under. They are 5-5 to the total. The Birds are 4-6 to the over.
The oddsmakers are expecting a somewhat high-scoring game since the over/under is posted at 49. The Birds are 1-2 to the over when the total has closed at 49 points or higher this season. The under hit last Thursday when the Birds/Commanders total closed at 49.
Matthew Stafford and co. are 4-0 to the under when the total lands at 48 or higher, so while there isn’t an overall over/under trend, the higher the number, the better odds for the under at least in the case of the Rams.
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In the matchup itself, there are a lot of similarities on offense as to how the Eagles and Rams move the ball.
They each have a dominant running back in Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams and a tremendous wide receiver duo. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith get the bulk of the Eagles’ targets, while Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have an even larger impact on the Rams passing game.
However, the Birds might have to rely more on Brown on Sunday night since Smith hasn’t practiced all week with a hamstring issue. If Smith can’t go, Dallas Goedert should receive an increase in targets, as well as Barkley.
As of Friday afternoon, only Brown’s receiving yards props were listed at over/under 75.5. The odds will adjust and more props will appear once we get clarity on Smith.
Nacua and Kupp are listed at 70.5 and 64.5 receiving yards, respectively. One, or both, of them could go under if they are matched up with Quinyon Mitchell.
A week ago, the Rams top wide outs combined for 13 catches on 19 targets and they each had 100-yard games against the New England Patriots.
The Eagles have only allowed one team to have more than 200 passing yards in the last six weeks. I’d look more toward Matthew Stafford’s under of 238.5 passing yards to fit into that trend.
Conversely, the Rams have allowed over 200 passing yards in three of their last four games. If Smith is out, it may be hard for Jalen Hurts to eclipse the over of 225.5 passing yards. He went under that mark in the last two games, but he’s had...
