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The Miami Dolphins have spent most of the 2025 season trying to claw their way back from their early stumbles. Their Week 14 win over the New York Jets kept the faintest flicker of postseason hope alive. At 6-7, Miami is playing its best football of the year. They are riding an increasingly efficient offense and showing signs of the explosiveness that once defined the Mike McDaniel era. With the AFC packed tighter than ever and tiebreakers stacked against them, though, the question now becomes painfully simple. Even if the Dolphins keep winning, will it matter?
The Dolphins routed the Jets 34-10 at MetLife Stadium. It extended their win streak to four games while officially eliminating New York from playoff contention. Tua Tagovailoa did not have the biggest outing, netting 127 yards and one touchdown. Miami built a commanding 21-0 first-quarter lead. De’Von Achane capped the early onslaught with a rushing TD, while the Dolphins’ defense stifled New York to just 10 points total, with seven from special teams mishaps like a blocked punt returned for a score. It showcased Miami’s formula for December dominance.
Despite the lopsided victory, concerns lingered with a late-game injury to star Achane (rib injury). Still, cold-weather execution from Tagovailoa and a balanced rush attack kept Miami’s faint wild-card hopes flickering amid a brutal remaining schedule. The Jets’ offense managed only field goals and turnovers, with Brady Cook’s and Tyrod Taylor’s picks fueling Miami’s explosion.
Here we’ll try to look at and discuss the Miami Dolphins’ playoff chances and their updated odds after their Week 14 win over the Jets.
Miami’s Week 14 win over the Jets was encouraging. However, it did little to alter the Dolphins’ long-term postseason outlook. According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, even if Miami miraculously wins its final four games to finish 10-7, its chances of making the playoffs sit at just 16 percent. That’s a shockingly low reward for an eight-game winning streak. As of today, with the Dolphins at 6-7, those same models give them less than a 1 percent chance of sneaking into the postseason.
The biggest problem isn’t Miami’s momentum. It’s the standings and the tiebreakers. The Dolphins are currently the 11th seed in a conference where the Bills, Chargers, Texans, and Colts all own at least six conference wins. Miami, by contrast, is just 3-6 in AFC games. That becomes catastrophic in tiebreak scenarios. Even with teams directly ahead of them faltering, the Dolphins would need a mathematically improbable series of collapses from several clubs to leapfrog into the seventh seed.
Worse, two of those teams, which are Houston and Indianapolis, already hold head-to-head wins over Miami. That further buries the Dolphins in tiebreak priority. The Ravens, who also defeated the Dolphins earlier in the season, add yet another obstacle to an already tortuous path.
If Miami hopes to climb back into the playoff conversation, Week 15...
