Arrowhead Pride
The Best NFL Bets for Week 9 | The Ringer
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+2)
The market has really fallen in love with the Chiefs: They are now power rated as the clear best team in the NFL following their 28-7 win on Monday Night Football against the Commanders. Given Buffalo’s general defensive issues and the loss of Ed Oliver to an injury, it’s no surprise that the market has opened up the Chiefs as a favorite, even though the Bills rarely lose at home in the Josh Allen era.
These two teams and quarterbacks have played each other so often that there’s really not all that much new to say about them. It usually comes down to the final possession or a major fourth-down conversion. Last year, the Bills won the regular-season meeting after converting a touchdown on a fourth down, but later, in January, they lost the playoff meeting after the Chiefs stopped them on fourth down. Kansas City’s fourth-down defense has been unsustainably good this season, and its EPA metrics are off the charts. The Chiefs have also had some fumble recovery luck go their way. This will serve as a good test to see whether the Chiefs defense is improved following early-season struggles.
Overall, the main point is that Kansas City’s offense has vastly improved from what we saw last year and even for most of 2023. The Chiefs have the advantage on both sides of the ball.
It’s hard to justify laying –2 on the road, but that’d be the only way I could bet this AFC clash of titans. Buffalo’s secondary hasn’t faced a lot of great offenses, and I have a lot more faith in Patrick Mahomes to once again get the better of Sean McDermott.
Verdict: Lean Chiefs –2
Buffalo Bills face Kansas City Chiefs in AFC’s ‘Groundhog Day’ rivalry | USA Today
Can Bills’ elite run game offset their passing deficiencies?
But first things first. While the Chiefs have found a stride since starting 0-2 and with Mahomes finally supported by his full complement of receivers – when Rashee Rice returned from his six-game NFL suspension two weeks ago, it marked the first time that he, “Hollywood” Brown and Xavier Worthy were all in the lineup at the same time – it strikes me as even more of a measuring stick contest for the Bills, listed as two-point underdogs.
If this is the year that Buffalo finally breaks through and makes it to the Super Bowl, there’s no better time than now to serve notice against the nemesis that has advanced to seven consecutive AFC Championship Games.
The Bills can’t match Kansas City’s explosive play potential like they used to, when Allen had since-departed Stephon Diggs among his weapons. The spotty receiver production is why, as the NFL trade deadline looms Tuesday, the Bills are targeted as...
